After navigating the turbulent pandemic waves, the recovering Indian economy is now sailing through unchartered waters of rising coronavirus cases, spiralling commodity prices and spiking inflation though the lighthouse of sustainable growth remains visible. As 2022 begins, a raft of developments, ranging from Budgetary announcements to continuation of stimulus measures to monetary policy, will set the tone for the domestic economy, which is projected to grow more than 9 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2022. The country's continuing massive vaccination drive and 'precaution' doses starting for select categories of people this month will provide a firewall against any steep spike in coronavirus cases amid the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Reliance Industries was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, soaring over 4 per cent, followed by Titan, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, Maruti and Dr Reddy's. Nifty advanced 89.45 points to its all-time closing peak of 17,323.60.
'India's specific concerns about whether Russia will be a reliable defense supplier and diplomatic partner in the event of heightened hostilities with China has undoubtedly accelerated the process of US-India defense and intelligence cooperation intended to support Indian military positions along the Line of Actual Control.'
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Bajaj Finserv was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying nearly 7 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries and IndusInd Bank.
'You may see some movement indicating a simpler tax regime with less exemptions but with fewer tax rates making life simpler for taxpayers.'
'Marginal rates will definitely affect the consumer's decision in entering a new transaction, but in reality, they don't affect much because banks/financial institutions have come up with step-up EMIs: 50% of home loans which exceed 15 years in India are prepaid, within 7-8 years.' 'This doesn't happen anywhere in the world.'
ICICI Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, soaring nearly 11 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, Dr Reddy's, SBI, M&M and Tech Mahindra. NSE Nifty advanced 10.50 points to 18,125.40.
'I hope the trend is sustainable and that economic activity accelerates going forward.'
For large numbers of employees in the government system, the month-end salary cheque is no longer guaranteed. So the days of the government and State-owned enterprises wanting to be ideal employers are over, observes T N Ninan.
Race Across America -- which spans a little over 3,000 miles, from the west coast of the US to its east -- is often called the toughest race in the world. Indian cyclists are now returning multiple finishes at RAAM including podium positions within age categories, discovers Shyam G Menon.
India's manufacturing sector activities witnessed faster growth in April amid quicker increases in production as well as factory orders, and renewed expansion in international sales, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 54.0 in March to 54.7 in April, as a retreat of COVID-19 restrictions continued to support demand. The April PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the tenth straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'I think it's a very healthy trend. It's an embarrassment of riches.'
'Today, there is no easy money to be made after the run-up in equities.'
The second quarter of FY22 continued to show double digit growth for the top four IT services providers, with every vertical and geography growing well, even though the total contract value (TCV) looked soft for all the players. The trend was first evident in Accenture's Q4 numbers, which saw its TCV in outsourcing deals softer. A soft TCV does not mean that growth is declining, but it does point to the trend of few and scarcer mega deals.
'India has formed tremendous resilience and still a strong growth.'
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'Investors need to have a fairly diversified basket of funds within equities.' 'We want them to allocate to largecap funds, midcap funds and flexicap schemes.'
Trading volumes for the equities cash segment remained soft, even as the benchmark indices rallied nearly 9 per cent in July. Meanwhile, volumes in the futures and options (F&O) market dipped marginally, but continued to hover at record levels. In July, the average daily turnover (ADTV) for the cash segment was Rs 46,602 crore, up 4.5 per cent month-on-month (MoM), but 26 per cent lower than the preceding 12-month average.
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The week ended October 17 was remarkable as it saw a fall in the unemployment rate. We have not seen such a level in any monthly estimate of the employment rate since March 2020, Mahesh Vyas points out.
Ahmed Shah Massoud's assassination, 9/11 and the defeat and ejection of the Taliban suggested a break in Afghanistan's history, but the events of August 2021 and the Taliban's return shows how deeper continuities remained in place, points out T C A Raghavan, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan.
'The focus on easier access and faster delivery is creating a new consumption pattern that allows consumers to satisfy their last-minute cravings and restock essentials at the click of a button.'
M&M was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, zooming over 5 per cent, followed by PowerGrid, ITC, L&T, Tech Mahindra, Titan and Tata Steel. Nifty rallied 169.80 points to 18,161.75.
During these eight weeks, the budget carrier will be subjected to "enhanced surveillance" by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation.
Perhaps the finance ministry or NITI Aayog could take a detailed look at what governments actually deliver and at what cost; how their services can be improved and expanded where necessary; how much money can be saved through doing things differently; and how many things the government does which it can safely leave to the private sector, argues T N Ninan.
And there have been months when flows have exceeded $3 billion.
Putting forward the government's view on the high level of fiscal deficit, Arvind Virmani, chief economic adviser in the finance ministry, claims the 6 per cent deficit is reversible.
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7 key areas that the Budget must address to re-energise the infrastructure sector, suggests Vinayak Chatterjee.
HCL Tech was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 3 per cent, followed by Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank.
The Indian economy has recovered 'handsomely' from the pandemic-induced disruptions, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Tuesday, while expressing hope that the recovery will be sustained and the growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent will be restored. Panagariya suggested that the government must now signal its intention to wind down fiscal deficit by cutting it by half-to-one percentage point in 2022-23. "The Indian economy has recovered handsomely, returning to its pre-COVID GDP... "Only private consumption is still below its pre-COVID-19 level," the eminent economist told PTI in an interview.
Despite unprecedented levels of uncertainty in Samvat 2077, investors have little to complain about on the returns front. The BSE Sensex delivered returns of 38 per cent in this period, while the Nifty registered a return of over 40 per cent. As is the case in bull markets, companies in the small- and mid-capitalisation basket outperformed the benchmarks, with returns almost twice those of frontliners.
Notwithstanding the COVID-19 second wave hitting the nation hard, Indian organisations have displayed resilience, and the salary increment is being projected to grow from an average of 8.8 per cent this year to an estimated average of 9.4 per cent in 2022, according to a survey. According to the Aon's 26th Annual Salary Increase Survey released on Tuesday, most businesses have an optimistic view going into 2022, with 98.9 per cent of companies intend to give salary increases in 2022, as compared to 97.5 per cent companies in 2021. There is positive sentiment across most sectors, and India Inc is firmly on the path to recovery, with most firms projecting salary hikes back to FY 2019 levels by FY 2022.
The 6.7% growth in Index of Consumer Sentiments in July 2022 is the highest since September 2021, explains Mahesh Vyas.
Members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) felt that though the Indian economy was resilient in the third wave, it, however, lost some momentum and with inflation likely to soften, there is room to continue with the accommodative stance and support revival, the minutes of the MPC meeting released on Thursday revealed. The six-member MPC voted to keep the policy rate unchanged and continued with the accommodative stance at its meeting on February 10. However, external member Jayanth Verma voted against the stance because he felt a switch to neutral was long overdue and the current stance has become counterproductive and deflects focus away from addressing recessionary trends that date back to at least 2019.
From Covid to climate change, Shankar Acharya's look at some of the trends and events that might shape 2022.
Equity mutual funds attracted Rs 8,898 crore in July, a 43 per cent decline compared to the preceding month as markets continued to remain volatile amid concerns over inflation and rate hike expectations. For the 17th straight month, equity mutual funds witnessed inflows in July. The net inflows in July were lower compared to Rs 15,495 crore seen in June, Rs 18,529 crore in May and Rs 15,890 crore in April, according to data released by Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) on Monday.
Indian consumers are likely to get respite from rising prices just before the festival season. Some consumer companies, including automakers, have indicated that they are planning to pause price hikes just before demand picks up in August, while keeping a close eye on volatile raw material prices.
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